The latest report from analyst firm TrendForce shows that RAM prices will typically fall by 8-13% in the first quarter of 2025.
For HBM RAM products, the expected price reduction is 0-5%. The main reason for this decrease is due to the decrease in market demand and changing price trends in Q4/2024.
Weak consumer demand, increased DDR4 production from Chinese suppliers, and a flood of low-cost DRAM chips in the spot market will cause DDR4 prices to decline more sharply than DDR5. Against this backdrop, PC DRAM prices are expected to continue to decline at a faster pace than in the previous quarter.
For server DRAM, contract prices for both DDR5 and DDR4 are also expected to decline due to weak seasonal demand early next year. Experts say manufacturers repurposing capacity to produce DDR4 memory and weak demand for DDR5 have increased the number of DDR5 products on the market. Moreover, high DDR4 memory inventories and Chinese manufacturers' plans to increase production by 2025 will cause prices to fall rapidly.
DRAM chips are on track for a sharp price drop thanks to action from Chinese manufacturers.
TrendForce also noted that smartphone makers’ DRAM chip inventories have returned to normal levels. It is expected that mobile device makers will continue to pursue a cautious strategy of purchasing new memory chips early next year to achieve better contract prices. Shipments of new products in the first quarter of 2025, which will begin later this year, are expected to reduce contract prices for LPDDR4X and LPDDR5X memory by 8-13% and 3-8%, respectively.
Demand for graphics DRAM chips will also decline in early 2025, although the supply of next-generation GDDR7 memory may provide growth momentum. However, amid the overall decline in DRAM demand, the average purchase price of graphics DRAM in the first quarter is expected to decline by 5-10%. Although some production capacity is being diverted to HBM production, graphics DRAM prices are unlikely to stabilize in the short term due to external market dynamics and increased inventories.
This opens up access to smartphones and PCs with higher RAM for consumers.
Consumer DRAM prices have started to decline since 4Q24, and buyers expect this trend to continue in 1Q25, facilitating negotiations with suppliers. Weak consumer sales, limited memory capacity growth in home appliances, and memory stockpiling since 2Q24 have added further pressure on prices. Oversupply in the spot market and discount sales programs are expected to lead to further declines in memory contract prices in
